Topic: Predictive Modeling of Suicidal Behavior in Indian Adults Using Machine Learning and Psychosocial Indicators
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Abstract
Suicide remains a critical public health concern in India, accounting for a substantial proportion of global suicide-related mortality. This study aims to develop and validate a machine learning–based predictive model for suicidal behavior among Indian adults by integrating psychosocial, demographic, and mental health indicators. A cross-sectional dataset was collected from 1,248 adults across five Indian states using standardized instruments, including the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-7), Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), and measures of social support and adverse life events.
Multiple machine learning algorithms—logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, and gradient boosting—were trained and evaluated using a stratified 10-fold cross-validation approach. The gradient boosting model demonstrated the best performance, achieving an accuracy of 87.3%, precision of 0.85, recall of 0.82, and an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.91. Key predictors of suicidal behavior included severe depressive symptoms (β = 0.41), high perceived stress (β = 0.29), prior suicide attempts (β = 0.36), unemployment (β = 0.21), and low perceived social support (β = −0.27).
The findings indicate that machine learning models can effectively identify high-risk individuals within the Indian sociocultural context, outperforming traditional statistical approaches. This study highlights the potential of data-driven, culturally informed predictive tools to support early intervention strategies and mental health policy planning in low- and middle-income countries. Integrating such models into community and primary healthcare systems may significantly enhance suicide prevention efforts in India.
Keywords:
Suicidal behavior prediction, machine learning in psychology, mental health in India.
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