The role of dry-season flow in shaping water security in the lower Mekong under combined impacts of hydropower and enso

Topic: The role of dry-season flow in shaping water security in the lower Mekong under combined impacts of hydropower and enso

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Abstract

This study quantifies the role of dry-season flow from Kratie in shaping water security in the Lower Mekong under combined impacts of hydropower operations and ENSO variability. Using SWAT and WEAP modeling, the analysis shows that dry-season discharges declined by up to 35% during strong El Niño events under intensified reservoir regulation.

This reduction led to agricultural losses ranging from 6,853 ha under mild ENSO to only 2,179 ha when reduced flow coincided with strong ENSO. In An Giang and Dong Thap, more than 1,100 ha and 1,250 ha of rice fields, respectively, were affected under mild ENSO, while coastal provinces such as Ben Tre, Soc Trang, and Ca Mau experienced saline intrusion penetrating 40-60 km inland, severely threatening aquaculture and fruit orchards. Ho Chi Minh City also recorded a reduction of 279 ha to 81 ha in water-secure areas, indicating risks to urban water supply.

These results highlight that reservoir regulation amplifies ENSO-driven anomalies, producing sharp declines in freshwater availability, agricultural output, and ecosystem resilience. The findings underscore the need for adaptive basin-wide management strategies, including flexible reservoir operation, salinity control infrastructure, and strengthened transboundary cooperation..

Keywords:

Dry-season flow, Water security, Hydropower, ENSO.

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